The latest step in updating Clark County’s land-use plan includes a projection of 269,000 jobs in the county in 2045.
The number is part of a 20-year employment projection that will be used to plan for how much land is needed to support those jobs. A public hearing began for adoption of the projection during Clark County Council’s Aug. 1 meeting, where the council voted 4-1 to continue the hearing to adjust part of the projection due to a technical error.
The employment projection follows the adoption of a population projection in May that anticipates Clark County will have 718,154 residents in 2045. Both projections are part of ongoing work for the 2025 update of the county’s comprehensive growth management plan, a land-use document used to steer growth under the state Growth Management Act.
The Growth Management Act doesn’t require jurisdictions to plan for a specific number of jobs, County Planner Jose Alvarez said. Though not required, planning for jobs based on population was important to consider when determining how much land would be needed to support those jobs, according to the presentation by county planning staff.
Although initially set for approval during the Aug. 1 meeting, staff needed to make adjustments to some of the numbers to be in line with what the growth plan update involves. Scott Bailey, regional labor economist for the state Employment Security Department covering southwest Washington, said he started with 2022 as the baseline for population in error because it was the latest real data he had to make a projection.
The needed change adjusts the number of jobs that will be added in the projection, which starts three years later in 2025.
“It doesn’t really affect anything, it just changed the starting point,” Bailey said.
The 20-year projection as adjusted anticipated 73,500 more non-farm jobs to be added to Clark County between 2025 to 2045. It is based on a ratio of one job per household.
That ratio was greater than the current reality of Clark County, which is about 0.85 jobs per housing unit, according to the staff presentation. That was due to county residents commuting outside of the county for work.
The projection anticipates a drop in cross-county commuting, both by more jobs allowing residents to work in-county and out-of-county workers coming in, Alvarez said. He said keeping the current ratio would perpetuate the status quo of in-county jobs. Previous councils had been more aggressive in projections in order to change that.
To support the addition of 73,500 jobs, 5,669 more acres of land for employment is needed, according to the staff presentation. After a next step in the process that will look at what land is available for developing those kinds of jobs, the county can determine if it needs to expand urban growth areas of cities, Alvarez said. Those areas allow for the type of development needed to support the kind of jobs expected to come to the county based on the employment projection.
Vancouver City Councilor Erik Paulsen said the city was in favor of the 269,000 job forecast, and not higher.
The needed urban growth area expansions for a higher projection would be beyond the city’s capital facilities funding ability, Paulsen said. Vancouver has the largest urban growth area in the county, extending as far north as the Interstate-5 junction with 179th Street near the Clark County Fairgrounds.
He said the employment forecast could be increased in the future but realistically couldn’t be reduced, nor could the urban growth area shrink.
The Columbia River Economic Development Council (CREDC) was “generally in favor” with the ratio of jobs per household, president and CEO Jennifer Baker said, though they had some concerns about the availability of industrial-zoned land.
The CREDC wanted the county to pursue a feasibility study to identify two to three sites that could be developed in the coming decades and served by urban utility infrastructure.
The study would find “a concentrated grouping of parcels that can truly be designated and protected for advancement of business, industry and innovation,” Baker said. She noted grants are available to fund those studies.
Building Industry Association of Clark County Government Affairs Director Noelle Lovern said there was a “perfect storm” of interests looking at land for housing, employment and protecting critical areas. Balancing those competing interests will be important as the county continues the process of the growth plan update.
“This is a monumental undertaking that has 20 years of implication for over 700,000 projected residents,” Lovern said.
