Despite concerns of a recession on a national level, in Clark County, at least, the economic outlook is positive.
The Employment Security Department of Washington State reported June job growth has pushed the unemployment rate to a pre-pandemic low. On top of that, U.S. solar jobs have grown by 3.5% and clean storage jobs are up 5%, according to a national report. Locally, regional economist Scott Bailey sees similar growth.
“I’m optimistic about the labor markets going forward,” he said. “I was never convinced that we were in or on the verge of a recession over the last year. I just didn’t see it in the data, and a lot of those projections were made based on people not realizing the COVID economy was different than regular times. But right now, just looking at job growth and the unemployment rate, things are pretty good based on those two factors.”
Bailey cautioned the economic situation may change, but at the present, the economy is reasonably strong.
In Clark County, non-farm employment rose by a solid 700 jobs in June on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Unadjusted employment in the county increased by 1,500 jobs in June. In Cowlitz County, unadjusted employment rose by 200 jobs in June.
In a year’s time, since June 2022, no sectors have lost jobs, according to Bailey’s Clark County data. Twelve industries have grown faster than the average for all industries, five industries added jobs at or below the average, and three industries had no change or decline over the last year. The arts, entertainment and recreation sector leads the charge in Clark County with a 15% increase in jobs. The construction sector gained 500 jobs over the month of June and is on a 2.7% increase. K-12 public education has seen no growth or loss in jobs in a year’s time.
Clark County’s unemployment rate for June 2023 was estimated at 3.1%, well below the 4.7% reported in June 2022, according to Bailey’s Clark County data; 3.1 percent is the lowest unemployment rate since the last 3.1% unemployment rate recorded in December 1999.
The Employment Security Department of Washington State reported the unemployment rate statewide decreased to 3.8% in June. The statewide unemployment rate in 2022 bounced from 4.9% in February to a low of 3.9% in multiple months but never down to February 2020’s 3.8% rate just before the pandemic. In April 2020, the statewide unemployment rate sat at 16.6%. In only three years and three months, the State of Washington has returned to pre-pandemic numbers.
“We’re No. 2 in the state in terms of job growth since right before COVID began,” Bailey said regarding Clark County. “We certainly had pretty good growth in a number of industries. Construction has been pretty strong, although we’re seeing it slow a bit with higher mortgage rates like everywhere else. We’ve seen a lot of growth in professional services, which include everything from accounting, an engineering architect, computer systems design has been a big part of that expansion.”
Bailey got his start in Clark County 30 years ago, and in that time he has seen the economy shift from what he described as mostly blue collar jobs to the professional services sector. The professional services sector in Clark County is still below average in some instances but has closed the gap compared to the state and nation, he added.
Bailey said some industries are blatantly struggling to find workers. Nursing home care and child care are in a challenging stretch of job growth, Bailey said, despite his data stating the overall health care and social assistance sector has increased at 4.3 % since June 2022.
Cowlitz County is currently experiencing a drop in its unemployment rate. As of June 2023, it sat at a new record low of 3.7%, which dates back to 1970, according to Bailey’s data.
