Freshman U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Skamania, and Republican challenger Joe Kent remain in a dead heat for the Third Congressional District, according to new polling released by the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI).
According to the poll results released Monday, Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent are tied at 46% support, with 8% of respondents undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9%.
The poll, administered by Public Policy Polling for NPI, was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week in the run-up to the first televised debate between the two candidates.
According to NPI, Public Policy Polling is a Democratic-aligned firm based in North Carolina that has worked on the group’s research since 2013.
In a statement Monday, NPI founder and Executive Director Andrew Villeneuve said the district has replaced Washington’s Eighth Congressional District, which straddles the Cascades and stretches from the Seattle suburbs to Central Washington, as the state’s “most competitive.”
"Republicans weren't happy when they lost WA-03 two years ago. They really want it back. Meanwhile, Democrats are equally enthusiastic about keeping it,” Villeneuve said.
A rematch of a 2022 election decided by fewer than 3,000 votes, outside groups have poured millions into advertising in the Third District this year, which could determine control of the House of Representatives.
This summer, both the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced multi-million dollar ad buys in an effort to sway voters.
Last week, both groups unveiled new ads in the lead up to Kent and Gluesenkamp Perez taking the stage at Lower Columbia College in Longview on Wednesday for the first general election debate of the 2024 cycle.
The debate attracted local and national media attention, with reporters from Seattle and Portland and CNN traveling to the Rose Center for the Arts.
"This is a tossup race, where the polling couldn't be closer, and we all know that tossups can go either way. Much attention will be paid to the money raised and what the candidates and their allies say about each other in debates and on-air in their ads,” Villeneuve said. “But our team believes this race might well be decided at the doors. Face-to-face interaction is hugely important to electoral success. The strength of the candidates' field operations could be pivotal."
The nonpartisan website “Cook Political Report” continues to rank the Third District as one of 11 “Democrat Toss-up Districts,” which the site defines as “either party has a good chance of winning.”
As the candidates prepare for a rematch, Kent could be boosted in the general election by high turnout for other Republicans on the ticket, including former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Kent. According to the same survey, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by five points in the race for the presidency, while Republican Senatorial candidate Raul Garcia leads Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell by three points in the district.
A first-time elected official, NPI noted that Gluesenkamp Perez has more resources this time around than in her first run for Congress, when she pulled off one of the biggest upset wins of the 2022 election cycle,
"With a majority of likely voters saying they plan to vote for Donald Trump, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez needs crossover support to earn reelection in this Republican-friendly swath of Washington State,” Villeneuve said. “She was able to secure that support in 2022 when many prognosticators wrote her off or ignored her. No one should doubt that she's capable of winning this rematch."
The candidates were set to meet for a debate at 6 p.m. Monday, Oct. 7, hosted by KATU News and sponsored by Willamette University.
